What about the obese people that eat less than 3000, or the lean people that eat over 3000? What about the higher metabolic demands of being obese? It’s known that maintenance calorie levels are much higher in an obese person than a person of normal weight.
If you’re not confused, you’re not thinking very hard about it.
I think what Matt is saying is there is not a one-to-one correlation between calorie consumption and weight gain. We are only given that impression by a misrepresentation of the actual statistics. Weight gain or loss depends on a lot more factors, including previous diet history, metabolic state, and social/physical environment.